GLOBAL CRISIS INDEX

How far is the world from the next financial crisis?

Every day we read the world's top institutional research and distill it into one number anyone can understand. Making global risk legible — so your household stays steady.

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/ 100 risk temperature
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EXHIBIT 1

Risk Factor RankingsFactor score = 25-year data percentile × weight + institutional-view score

EXHIBIT 2

Institutional Probability BoardReal published figures, shown as-is · Definitions differ and are not directly comparable

InstitutionFigureDefinitionDate

Two reminders: ① These figures use different definitions — they cannot be added or directly compared; we blend them only through our proprietary factor-attribution algorithm, for reference only. ② They all concern a "US recession", not a "global financial crisis".

EXHIBIT 3

Key ReadingsPercentiles show each indicator's position in its history since 2000 (higher = riskier)

IndicatorCurrentRisk percentileUpdated
EXHIBIT 4

Historical Crisis ReferenceHard-data layer

DateEventReading

How to read this table: it measures how thick the storm clouds are (how much risk has accumulated). Bubble peaks read high, while the depths of a crisis read low — by late 2008, rates had been cut to zero and oil and valuations had collapsed, so the "risk build-up" indicators naturally fell back.

This Week in Plain Words

Honest Disclosure

Humanity's track record at predicting crises is poor. An IMF study (WP/18/39) covering 153 recessions across 63 countries from 1992–2014 found that only 5 were foreseen by consensus forecasts a year in advance — a miss rate of about 97%. Therefore:

  • This index is a risk-organizing tool, not a crystal ball. The reading is a "risk temperature", not the probability of any event.
  • The most robust finding in the academic literature (Greenwood et al., Journal of Finance 2022): when credit and asset prices are both running hot — the "red zone" — the three-year crisis probability rises from about 7% to about 40%. A five-fold increase; yet it also means about 60% of red-zone episodes see no crisis within three years.
  • Our methodology is fully public and reproducible; every number has a source.

Citing This Index

This index is an open data product. Media, creators and researchers are welcome to cite its readings and charts free of charge, under two conditions:

① Attribute the source: "Global Crisis Index" with globalcrisisindex.co.uk. ② Do not alter figures or bands, and do not present the reading as a "crash probability" or any investment signal.

For commercial use (in-app or terminal embedding, etc.), please obtain authorization first: [email protected].